Cook: GOP Could Re-Take the Senate

"Could the GOP grab 10 seats and take control of the Senate?"

Speaker McConnell?

Charlie Cook is on of the nations foremost political prognosticators.

He is not saying that the GOP will win control of the Senate this November.

But he is saying that the GOP could win control of the Senate this November.

For much of this year, it seemed a near mathematical impossibility that Republicans could score the 10-seat net gain needed to flip the Senate, which is split between 59 Democrats (including two independents who caucus with Democrats and largely vote with the party) and 41 Republicans. As recently as six weeks ago, I wrote in a CongressDailyAM column that a GOP win was “certainly possible” but “still fairly unlikely.” Although the “fairly unlikely” part is still valid, the possibility of a GOP takeover is growing.

To be sure, a 10-seat gain for Republicans remains hard. Eighteen Senate seats could plausibly turn over — a dozen held by Democrats and six by Republicans. Looking first at the five open seats — Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio — that the GOP is defending, the Republican challenger holds the lead in each race. Granite State voters won’t select nominees until September 14, but former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, the Republican with the best chance of defeating Rep. Paul Hodes, the presumptive Democratic nominee, is increasingly favored to win the GOP nod. None of the Republican leads in these five states is insurmountable, but at this point, you would rather be the GOP nominee than the Democratic one in each place.

There are few signs that the contest of scandal-plagued Rep. David Vitter, R-La., is getting competitive. Meanwhile, Rep. Richard Burr’s numbers suggest real vulnerability in North Carolina, but it looks exceedingly unlikely that either Southern incumbent is in any real danger of losing. In a better year for Democrats, maybe, but not this year.

Suffice it to say that Republicans have a good shot of holding all their seats. If that’s true, then the GOP would need to win 10 Democratic-held seats to win the majority.

Definitely good news for Conservatives, but Glenn Reynolds’ words keep playing through my mind.

Don’t get cocky, kid.